Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 300 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

9K 300 · SJU → STT

departs 2:04 PM AT · arrives 3:02 PM AST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STT

↑ 2pm departures from SJU are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STT is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 300 · SJU → STT

Odds over time

How late will it get to STT?