Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 300 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9K 300 · SJU → STT

departs 2:00 PM AT · arrives 3:00 PM AST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from SJU are often late

↑ Arrivals into STT at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SJU is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 300 · SJU → STT

Odds over time

How late will it get to STT?