Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 596 · HNL → LNY
departs 5:42 PM HT · arrives 6:49 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at LNY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LNY?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LNY that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
LNY usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into LNY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
LNY (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.