Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 841 · MKK → HNL
departs 11:35 AM HT · arrives 12:35 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28 41%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MKK is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
11am departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.