Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
9X 841 · MKK → HNL
departs 11:34 AM HT · arrives 12:33 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28 45%
Thu 10/29 32%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MKK is busy at that time
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.