Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 909
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 909 · OGG → MUE
departs 6:24 PM HT · arrives 7:22 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MUE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MUE?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MUE that day
↓
Arrivals into MUE at that hour are usually not late
↓
MUE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
MUE (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.