tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 1004 · BOS → DCA

departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6.8d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to DCA?

  1. On time or early
    68%
  2. 15–30 min late
    12%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    10%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    6%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.