Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1031 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1031 · CLT → LAS

departs 4:51 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1031 · CLT → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?