Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1391 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1391 · MIA → STT

departs 12:04 PM ET · arrives 2:54 PM AST

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STT?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1391 · MIA → STT

Odds over time

How late will it get to STT?