AA 1398 · PHL → SEA

took off 6:14 PM ET · landed 9:08 PM PT (scheduled 6:02 PM ET → 8:54 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1398 · PHL → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?