Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 158 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 158 · MIA → CUN

departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CUN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Arrivals into CUN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CUN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 158 · MIA → CUN

Odds over time

How late will it get to CUN?