Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1711 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1711 · CLT → PHX

departs 2:25 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1711 · CLT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?