Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1858 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

AA 1858 · PVU → DFW

departs 2:08 PM MT · arrives 5:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVU

Weather at each end

PVU (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1858 · PVU → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?