Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1913 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1913 · CLT → SAN

departs 8:58 AM ET · arrives 10:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ 8am departures from CLT are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1913 · CLT → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?