Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2142 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2142 · LGA → DCA

departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2142 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?