Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2216 · CCS → MIA

departs 2:46 PM -04 · arrives 6:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CCS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

CCS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2216 · CCS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?