AA 2321 · DFW → SDF

departs 3:33 PM CT · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2321 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?