Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2321 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 2321 · DFW → SDF

departs 3:38 PM CT · arrives 6:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

SDF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2321 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?