Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2411 · SFO → CLT

departs 11:07 AM PT · arrives 7:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2411 · SFO → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?