Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2577 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2577 · LGA → CLT

departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 8:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2577 · LGA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?