Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2584 · SRQ → DCA

departs 12:21 PM ET · arrives 3:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SRQ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2584 · SRQ → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?