AA 274 · LAX → JFK

departs 12:26 PM PT · arrives 8:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at JFK that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 274 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?