Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 274 · LAX → JFK

departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 8:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 274 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?