AA 2934 · CLT → SAT

departs 3:09 PM ET · arrives 5:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,250 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2934 · CLT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?