Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3012 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 3012 · PHL → CLT

departs 3:31 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3012 · PHL → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?