Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3030 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

AA 3030 · DFW → MCI

departs 3:05 PM CT · arrives 4:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3030 · DFW → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?