Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3315 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 3315 · MIA → SXM

departs 10:05 AM ET · arrives 1:08 PM AST

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at SXM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SXM?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Arrivals into SXM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SXM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3315 · MIA → SXM

Odds over time

How late will it get to SXM?