Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 784 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

AA 784 · CLT → MUC

departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 6:27 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MUC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Arrivals into MUC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MUC (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 784 · CLT → MUC

Odds over time

How late will it get to MUC?