Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1049 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

departs 12:16 PM HT · arrives 1:06 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

LIH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?