Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1049 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

departs 12:16 PM HT · arrives 1:06 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIH

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

LIH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,033 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?