Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1098 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1098 · HNL → KOA

departs 11:32 AM HT · arrives 12:34 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

KOA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1098 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?