Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1098 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1098 · HNL → KOA

departs 11:32 AM HT · arrives 12:34 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1098 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?