Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1411 · LAX → SFO

departs 2:23 PM PT · arrives 3:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1411 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?