Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1411 · LAX → SFO

departs 2:23 PM PT · arrives 3:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1411 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?