Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 14 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 14 · SAN → DCA

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 14 · SAN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?