Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 269 · SFO → SNA

departs 5:01 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 269 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?