Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 269 · SFO → SNA

departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 269 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?