Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 515 · PAE → PHX

departs 3:25 PM PT · arrives 6:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PAE

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 515 · PAE → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?