Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 515SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 515 · PAE → PHX
departs 3:25 PM PT · arrives 6:33 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%chance · ±6 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.