Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 540 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 540 · PDX → AUS

departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 4:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.01 in

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 540 · PDX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?