Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 540 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 540 · PDX → AUS

departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 4:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

AUS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 540 · PDX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?