Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 689 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 689 · SAN → DFW

departs 5:46 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 689 · SAN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?