Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 689 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 689 · SAN → DFW

departs 5:46 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,667 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 689 · SAN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?