Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 7 · DCA → SFO

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7 · DCA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?