Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 890 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 890 · OGG → PDX

departs 11:12 AM HT · arrives 7:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ 11am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 890 · OGG → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?