Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 890 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 890 · OGG → PDX

departs 11:13 AM HT · arrives 7:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 11am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 890 · OGG → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?