Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 94 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 94 · SAN → HNL

departs 11:13 AM PT · arrives 2:23 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 94 · SAN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?