Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 94 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 94 · SAN → HNL

departs 11:14 AM PT · arrives 2:30 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,267 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 94 · SAN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?