Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1447
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
B6 1447 · HPN → TPA
departs 6:56 AM ET · arrives 9:54 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 9%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at TPA that day
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.