Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1447
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 1447 · HPN → TPA
departs 6:56 AM ET · arrives 9:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 9%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↑
HPN is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.